#46 – On Gaslighting, Murderous AI, Small Bets, and Over-Confidence
Hello & happy Monday,
After a night with little sleep (parenting, not partying) here’s a new issue of Strategy Bites, delving into a topic that never seizes to amaze and anger me: AI. (I know I promised more on that, and it will happen, eventually.) Then there’s a long read on gaslighting with a potentially gaslighting headline; an article that argues that the reason you’re upset with the economy is mostly because you’re giving yourself too much credit for your recent pay rises; another little celebration of the best discipline in advertising; and an quick primer on the myth of small bets.
Enjoy the read – and feel free to share it with your network.
Six Links of Inspiration:
Here lies the internet, murdered by generative AI. This article made me furious and scared the living shit out of me. Not because I care about the internet so much. But because I care about my children. They haven’t yet discovered the joys of YouTube and I’m a strong believer of watching stuff with them rather than putting them in front of “the nanny in the corner”, as my mother in law calls the TV, unattended. But most certainly this will change eventually, which mean eventually they’ll not just be exposed to the horrifying vitriol that humans put onto the web, but also to the utter, pointless horseshit that people create with the help of AI.
Shortly after I read this I had one of those opportunistic AI newsletters in my inbox that sported this shocking graph. Only about 12 percent of content is created by humans. The rest is pure AI or some weird concoction of AI enabled garble.
We’ve already known that humans are economic animals, which doesn’t mean they are making rational decisions, it means they’re trying to get away with the bare minimum of effort to achieve a satisfying outcome. Now that we’ve given people the opportunity to think even less than they used to we’ll be shocked to learn how limitless our idiocy can be. Until now, we’ve produced loads of trash. Now we’re starting to feed on it, too.So You Think You’ve Been Gaslit. In other taking-concepts-a-step-too-far news, this article resonated. A riveting account on how gaslighting has turned from niche clinical concept to ubiquitous cultural diagnosis. “The popularity of the term testifies to a widespread hunger to name a certain kind of harm. But what are the implications of diagnosing it everywhere? When I put out a call on X (formerly known as Twitter) for experiences of gaslighting, I immediately received a flood of responses, Leah’s among them. The stories offered proof of the term’s broad resonance, but they also suggested the ways in which it has effectively become an umbrella that shelters a wide variety of experiences under the same name.” It’s a long but worthwhile read that explores the prevalence of a concept that seems to be both hurting and helping us in our every days. How helpful, though, is a concept that can describe a parent offloading their anxiety for running late onto their children (and their choice of clothing) and a father dismissing and ultimately manipulating a daughter’s emotional reality? The article suggests that we’re all guilty in gaslighting because relationships and, arguably, life are about the perception of a shared reality that will never be fully aligned. Ultimately, it takes two to gaslight. And the article’s headline is proof.
Account Planning and Strategy: 50 Years of Rock ‘n’ Roll. I was on an APG UK call the other day when someone wondered whether it wasn’t the 40th anniversary of the JWT planning cycle, or something. Nope, it’s worth, it’s been 50 years. And why not share another article in celebration/admiration of the best discipline in the marketing industry? This one by someone who’s been part of the ride from the very beginning. To the next 50 years.
The Myth of Small Bets. Every good lesson comes wrapped in a story, and the story about big bets starts in the mid-2000s. “At the time, Alan Horn and Warner Bros. were in fourth place in the entertainment market and, based on the need to grow market share, adopted a “big bet” strategy. The big bet strategy meant making big investments in event movies each year, movies like the Harry Potter franchise and The Dark Knight. Meanwhile, Jeff Zucker and NBC Universal were in first place in the entertainment market and, based on the protect market share, adopted a “small bet” strategy. The small bet strategy believed that the way to continue to profit was to make small, distributed investments to manage for margins instead of ratings.” To find out how this nail biter of a teaser ends, head to the link. I’m pretty sure, though, you’ve already seen this one play out. The part of the lesson that often gets ignored, though, is the one at the very end, when it comes to the distribution of said big bets.
I’m an Economist. Don’t Worry. Be Happy. This is an article about inflation and how things ultimately aren’t as bad as they seem. Which isn’t a new argument. There’s been a few pieces written about this recently. However, this article provides an explanation why so many people still think they’re worse of than they are: “That’s because real people tend to process the parallel rise of prices and wages in quite different ways. In brief, researchers have found that we tend to internalize the gains due to inflation and externalize the losses. These different processes yield different emotional responses.” In other words: you’re giving yourself too much credit for your recent pay rise.
AI Has Lost Its Magic. Let’s wrap this week’s issue with (yet) another piece on AI. Just as a reminder that this technology has already nestled itself into the cosy everyday of our lives and is therefore here to stay. “Not all inventions lose their shimmer right away, but the ones that change the world won’t take long to seem humdrum. I already miss the feeling of enchantment that came from making new Hart Crane poems or pear-soft-drink ad campaigns. I miss the joy of seeing any imaginable idea brought instantly to life. But whatever nostalgia one might have for the early days of ChatGPT and DALL-E will be no less fleeting in the end. First the magic fades, then the nostalgia. This is what happens to a technology that’s taking over. This is a measure of its power.” AI is no longer exciting, it’s become too real.
That’s all for this week. I hope to see you back here next time. And if you have any questions or comments, please reach out!
All the best,
Maximilian